[Zheng Mian's fundamentals remain weak and the pressure is obvious, and the main contract is rising and falling]
Release date:[2020/7/24] Read a total of [124] time

On July 22, the cotton spot index CCI3128B was quoted to 12271 yuan/ton (+109); the current spread was -106 (09 contract closing price-spot price), polyester staple fiber was quoted at 5280 yuan/ton (+0), viscose short Fiber price 8300 yuan/ton (+0); CYIndexC32S price 18590 yuan/ton (+0), FCYIndexC32S (imported cotton yarn price index) price 18147 yuan/ton (+31); Zheng cotton warehouse receipt 19324 (-136), effective forecast 1574 sheets (+43). On July 22, the reserve cotton wheel sold 8545.99 tons of sales resources, and the actual transaction was 8545.99 tons, with a transaction rate of 100%. The average transaction price was RMB 11,656/ton, an increase of RMB 19/ton from the previous day.
The current arrival price of US EMOTM is 72.6 cents/lb, the arrival price of India S-61-1/8 is 64.8 cents/lb, the arrival price of Brazil M is 68.5 cents/lb, and the arrival price of foreign cotton is higher than the previous trading day. stay the same. On July 21, local time, the US suddenly unilaterally requested China to close the Consulate General in Houston within a time limit, and requested that all personnel be closed and evacuated within 72 hours. The U.S. move is a political provocation against China, which has made the already tense Sino-U.S. relations worse, and the market is also worried about U.S. cotton exports. After all, since the signing of the first phase of the trade agreement between China and the U.S., China has continued to import U.S. Cotton, this move may reduce the demand for US cotton and drag down US cotton export data. Yesterday, the Changying Yinxian on the ICE cotton 12 contract closed at 62.58 cents/lb, the futures price decreased by 0.35 cents/lb from the previous trading day, and positions increased by 69 hands to 121,000 hands. From a technical point of view, the MACD green column increased slightly. DIFF and DEA fit the dead cross but are still above the zero axis. The KDJ indicator shows signs of turning upwards. In the short-term, we will pay attention to the first-line support of the middle rail.
 Although the impact of the epidemic persists, market sentiment has gradually changed from panic to calm; coupled with the loose monetary policy of many countries and the implementation of financial support policies for economic recovery in the later period of the epidemic, coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, it has supported the overall operation of the market. The stock market performed brilliantly, and the commodity market rebounded strongly. The Mandarin Commodity Index reached a peak of 146.72 yesterday, a peak in nearly four months. Zheng Mian was dragged down by fundamentals, and cotton prices were under greater upward pressure. Yesterday, the Zheng Mian 09 contract opened higher in early trading, and then rushed all the way to 12425 yuan/ton, the highest value since the outbreak of the epidemic. The futures price dropped sharply near the close, and finally it was 12165 yuan/ton, which was higher than the previous transaction. The daily increase is 85 yuan/ton. Holding positions increased by 22,000 lots to 318,000 lots. From a technical point of view, the MACD green column turned into a red column, DIFF and DEA fitted the golden cross, and the KDJ indicator turned upward and showed signs of fitting the golden cross, and the technical indicators tended to Strong.
 The short-term operating range of Zheng Mian 09 contract is 11700-12300. It is recommended that the long-term bargain-hunting funds that entered the market continue to hold 10-15% of the position, short-term traders enter the 01 contract on dips, and the profit-loss ratio is 2.5:1


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