[In 2021 my country's chemical fiber industry operations!]
Release date:[2021/5/13] Read a total of [50] time

In 2020, it was seriously affected by the epidemic of the new coronal pneumonia. The risks and tests faced by my country's chemical fiber industry have increased, and the economic benefits and operational quality of the industry fell significantly year-on-year.


During the year, the international crude oil prices plummeted overlay market demand is sluggish, so that my country's chemical fiber market prices are overall in low operation. The overseas epidemic situation is grim, and my country's import and export chemical fiber products have been significantly reduced.


However, with the fact that my country's epidemic situation improves, the whole industry chain accelerates the recovery production, the demand for textile terminals is gradually recurring, and the economic operation of the chemical fiber industry also presents a rebound. The growth rate is steadily rebounded. The main economic operation indicators continue to narrow.


However, in the whole, we still have to realize that the production and operation pressure of industry enterprises has not completely alleviated, and the development confidence is still insufficient, and the benefits and investment have not turned negative growth.


2020 industry operation situation


The total chemical fiber production increased by 3.4% year-on-year.


From 2020, it is affected by new coronal pneumonia, the starting load rate of my country's chemical fiber industry has declined sharply in the first quarter, and then gradually recovered, and the second half of the year is basically flat.


According to the product, the start rate of the polyester short-fiber industry gradually recovers by 52% on February 7, 2020; in late April ~ November, the operating rate has maintained more than 86%; from December, start The rate is slightly reduced, but still more than 85%.


The starting rate of the polyester filament industry gradually recovers by 58% on February 14, 2020; from May to December, the operating rate remains around 80%.


The operating rate of the viscose short-fiber industry fell to 64% on February 1420; it has been maintained at around 60%; there is an upward trend at the end of September; the end of October is up to 72%; the construction rate of the fourth quarter is basically 75%. about.


From the total production, in 2020, my country's chemical fiber production was 602.2512 million tons, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year.


Among them, polyester, nylon, vivine, and spandex have achieved positive growth, an increase of 3.89%, 3.87%, 11.06%, 14.44%, respectively, and the yield of viscose fiber and acrylic, a decrease of 4.11%, respectively. 5.12%.


During the year, in the end of the month, my country's chemical fiber production has been rebounded in a year-on-year growth rate. Especially in the second half, the production status of chemical fiber companies continues to be good. From January to September, chemical fiber production is achieved by negative growth, and the year-on-year increase is 3.4% year-on-year.


Invested and exports decline


In 2020, my country's imported chemical fiber was 7.59 million tons, a year-on-year reduction of 17.3%. In all chemical fiber products, the import volume of spandex increased by 5.16% year-on-year, and the import volume of other major chemical fiber products decreased year-on-year.


In 2020, my country's chemical fiber products have a total export capacity of 46.64 million tons, down 7.92% year-on-year, but polyester filaments, viscose staple fiber, spandex and acrylic exports are achieved.


Market price center is overall


From the raw material end, the demand caused by the "price war" superimposed in the first quarter of 2020, which caused the international oil prices plummeted. In April, there was an unprecedented number of international oil prices. It started to turn upwards; it was basically stable in the third quarter; the beginning of November gradually began to rise, OPEC + crude oil production policy and Saudi crude oil additional production, US new government implemented large-scale Multi-factors such as economic stimulus and demand improvement have sustainable international oil prices. But from the perspective of the year, in 2020, the international oil price is much lower than in 2019.


It is affected by the decline in raw material prices and the lack of demand, and the overall price of my country's chemical fiber market is significantly lower than 2019. In the first quarter, as the international crude oil prices plummeted, my country's chemical fiber products lost cost support. After that, with the repair of crude oil prices, my country's chemical fiber market gradually stabilizes, but the shortage of demand is still the biggest problem facing the industry. In the third quarter, my country's chemical fiber market performance was basically stable. Beginning in mid-September, the "Lanina" phenomenon caused in my country, "Double 11" order demand is initiated in advance, and the textile orders in India and other places have been affected by multiple factors such as the Chinese market. my country's chemical fiber market emerges. "Golden Nine Silver Ten" market. After that, the market experienced a short filling adjustment. At the end of the fourth quarter, the market has a cost reduction, good demand, low inventory, and the price of chemical fiber products is in low, the company is poor, even losses, the market has strong rebound demand, my country's chemical fiber products Bounce rebound.


Industry operation is significantly reduced year-on-year


In 2020, my country's chemical fiber industry economy has declined significantly. The national statistical bureau data shows that from January to December, the chemical fiber industry achieved operating income of 79.842 billion yuan, down 10.41% year-on-year; the total profit was 26.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.72%; industry loss surface is 28.72%, loss of loss enterprises Increased by 22.99% year-on-year. However, economic operation is improved sequentially, of which total profit has gradually narrowed year-on-year, and the loss of losses will fall significantly in the second half of the year.


However, from the market performance, within the year, the benefits of spandex, polyester staple fiber, polyester bottle, and other products related to the epidemic prevention materials are relatively good, and there is even short-term out-of-stock.


It is also worth noting that the implementation of "refining integration" development model, 2020 business performance is relatively bright. Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengfei, etc. have achieved good competitive advantages and strong anti-risks in the process of cope with the grim market situation of this round. ability.


For example, in 2020, Hengli Group's 20 million tons / annualization integration project realized the full-load operation of the first year, maintained low inventory within the year, the operation is flexible, and the production and sales operation. According to financial report, in 2020, Hengli Penghua realized operating income of 152.373 billion yuan, an increase of 51.19% year-on-year; the net profit belonging to the shareholders of listed companies were 13.462 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.28%. Its business performance can still achieve the main reasons for the growth in the epidemic, including the increase in the refining of the integrated project to increase production by 5 months in 2019.


However, this part of the company's partial refining profit may not count in the chemical fiber industry.


In 2020, the chemical fiber industry has a large pressure, the main operational quality indicators have declined significantly compared with 2019, but in progressive improvements. The profitability has declined, and the profit margin of operating income is 3.3%, which is reduced by 0.18 percentage points year-on-year. The development capacity is affected, and the operating income growth rate is 14.41 percentage points year-on-year. The operation capacity is not as follows in the same period of 2019, accounting rate, the turnover rate of the finished product, the turnover rate, and the total assets turnover rate are decreased year-on-year. The three percentage increased by 0.26 percentage points year-on-year.


Fixed asset investment is 19.4% year-on-year


The new crown pneumonia epidemic superimposed industry prosperity decline, the willingness to invest in corporate investment, the investment scale has been reduced, and some projects have delayed production capacity. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the fixed asset investment in my country's chemical fiber industry is reduced by 19.4% year-on-year.


2021 Industry Operations Prospect


2021 running indicators will be significantly improved


The most difficult 2020 has passed. In 2021, my country's economy accelerated recovery will provide guarantees for the continued recovery and steady development of the chemical fiber industry.


From the demand side, the production of my country and the global textile industry will continue to consolidate the situation of recovery growth. my country's textile and apparel exports will continue to grow, and the domestic consumer market will continue to rise, which will provide growth in the chemical fiber industry.


From the raw material side, with the gradual recovery of the world economy, the price center of international oil prices is expected to be significantly higher than 2020, and my country's chemical fiber market will have certain support. However, as oil prices continue to rise, global crude oil production has increased production, which will limit international oil prices. In addition, in 2021, my country's PX, PTA, and Ethylene glycol (MEG) is still in a high expansion period. The contradiction between PX and MEG supply shortages on the domestic market will be relieved. The PTA supply will remain loose, which will be a certain degree. The cost support brought by oil prices is a hedge, and the industrial chain profit will be transferred from the raw material to the backward.


From the perspective of new production capacity in the industry, 2021 is still my country's chemical fiber industry, especially the production capacity of polyester polyester industry, and the supply and demand contradictions will be highly high. The growth of demand can effectively digest production capacity and remain to be observed. Moreover, most of the new production capacity is concentrated in the chemical fiber leader, which will result in further consolidation of the scale cost of leading enterprises, and will intensify the "extrusion effect" to form other enterprises to a certain extent.


In general, in 2021, my country's chemical fiber industry will continue to be in the recovery cycle, but the process will not be smooth, market volatility may increase. In 2021, my country's chemical fiber production, industry economic benefits, etc. are expected to be significantly better than 2020. However, due to the low bases in the first half of 2020, continued recovery in the second half of the year, and the growth rate of industry indicators in the industry will show a significant high and low trend in 2021. In terms of export, due to the risk of global popularity, the demand for international textile and apparel markets rebounded, and international logistics is faster, and the export volume of my country's chemical fiber products is expected to return to growth.


In the long run, the epidemic accelerated the structural adjustment of my country's chemical fiber industry, further promoted the structural reform of the industry's supply side, and the company also threw more about how to lay and develop in the future.


In the post-epidemic age, "innovation, safety, and environmental protection" will become the focus of my country's chemical fiber industry. Industry and enterprises should continue to strengthen independent innovation, integrate new materials, new technologies, grasp the trend of domestic demand and upgrading, continuously improve product quality and technology added value, explore new needs; improve intelligent manufacturing level, through implementation of intelligent manufacturing, integration industries Chain data resources, realize "all things". At the same time, industrial safety can not be ignored. At present, the raw material of my country's chemical fiber is highly dependent on petroleum resources, and the raw material of the regenerated cellulose fiber is highly dependent on imports, which have certain industrial safety hazards. In the field of environmental protection, my country has put forward the goal of "Carbon emissions to 2030 years ago, striving for 2060 years ago", will further promote and accelerate the green transformation and upgrade of the chemical fiber industry.


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