[Adjust oil demand and port inventory need to pay close attention!]
Release date:[2023/5/18] Read a total of [224] time

Since April 4, PTA continuous contract from 6398 yuan/ton fell to 5244 yuan/ton, down 18%! On the spot, PTA inner disk from 6450 yuan/ton fell to 5698 yuan/ton, down 11.66%!

The speed of spot price decline is greater than the speed of futures price decline, resulting in a significant weakening of the PTA basis in the recent period, in which the basis of 2309 contracts fell from the highest point of 800 yuan/ton to near 300 yuan/ton, and the basis of 2305 contracts fell from the highest point of 200 yuan/ton to near the zero axis. This week, has been from the beginning of the week premium 2309 contracts more than 500 yuan/ton quickly weakened to about 300 yuan/ton premium 2309 contracts.

Port inventories continue to accumulate

Since April, the downstream polyester load continued to decline, PTA equipment with profit improvement mostly normal operation. Overall, the supply side continues to increase under the background, the current demand negative feedback has been transmitted to the polyester side. In this case, due to the continued accumulation of the port inventory, PTA spot basis significantly weaker is also reasonable.

PTA basis significantly weakened, on the one hand, the market on the future spot supply expectations gradually loose, on the other hand that the downstream polyester operating rate is low, some downstream polyester factory production, production and sales overall is not prosperous, weaving orders are not good, the next few months PTA supply and demand balance sheet will be from the previous tight balance to partial accumulation.

In this expectation, the processing fee of PTA may gradually compress, and finally form a dynamic balance between supply and demand.

Manifest inventory at ports is declining rapidly

At the time of PTA weakening, another important polyester material seems to be retracing the old path of PTA. Five a small holiday after ethylene glycol in polyester plate out of the independent market successfully attracted the eye of the market. Up to now, compared with PTA and staple fiber on the same industry chain, ethylene glycol trend can be regarded as "a standout". At the same time, manifest inventories at ports are falling fast.

According to Shenwan futures analyst Yuan Wei, the first quarter glycol port inventory has been hovering above 1 million tons, the lack of a relatively obvious fundamental gap in the market, the market performance is more modest. However, around May Day, the port inventory dropped to 991,000 tons, with Taicang Reservoir area seeing the biggest drop of 12.75 percent. The main driving force of ethylene glycol's recent strength comes from the port to the warehouse, and the transaction logic behind it is similar to the first quarter of PTA.

The trend of two polyester raw materials may be "parting ways"

Two polyester raw material division from the same door, but the current situation is very different. In terms of ethylene glycol, due to the impact of overseas equipment maintenance and internal and external price differences, the price of ethylene glycol near the integer mark of 4000 yuan/ton is very strong, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the port inventory and shipment amount of ethylene glycol in the later stage. Judging from the current shipping schedule, the arrival of goods after mid-May will gradually recover. It is expected that the process of port demineralization will gradually come to an end, and the probability of the inventory falling below the 900,000 tons threshold is limited. In addition, also need to continue to pay attention to polyester operating rate.

In terms of PTA, the second quarter of the core trading factors are mainly two points: one is the oil logic in the peak season after the arrival of gasoline performance. Although at present, it is difficult to repeat last year's big market because of the decline in gasoline crack and the smooth flow of aromatic hydrocarbons, we still need to pay close attention to prevent extreme market conditions. The second is the response of supply side after negative demand feedback.

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