[Zheng cotton fell back to half a year ago the supply side of the loose trend is obvious]
Release date:[2023/11/23] Read a total of [84] time

Recently, Zheng Mian once again opened the diving mode, on November 21, Zheng cotton main contract fell to the lowest day to 15130 yuan/ton, closing at 15160 yuan/ton, down 2.98%. Zheng cotton main contract hit a new half-year low.


Zheng cotton main contract after yesterday's fall, on November 22, a certain degree of rebound. On the external side, concerns about declining demand continue to persist, combined with progress in the US harvest to weigh on ICE cotton. Domestically, the fundamental pressure on cotton remains, but the cost is supported. On November 21, Zheng cotton main contract closed at 15,375 yuan/ton, up 0.36%.


Since November, Zheng cotton has been oscillating for three weeks near 15500-16000 yuan/ton under the bullish and bearish interweaving situation supported by the acquisition cost, but in fact, the hedging pressure above is real and clear, and the cost support has been falsified many times in the past year, and its strength continues to weaken with the prolongation of time. Zheng Mian finally pressure down to select the direction.


Although the reserve cotton rotation has ended, it has added nearly 900,000 tons of resources for the market, Xinjiang cotton is listed in large quantities and cotton imports hit a new high in October, the supply side is relaxed, and the downstream cotton yarn performance is depressed, the inventory continues to backlog, traders cotton yarn inventory pressure is difficult to ease in the short term, weak demand under the market pessimism or still not digested.


At present, large supply chain inventory enterprises and cotton textile enterprises are selling inventory at lower prices, and small and medium-sized textile enterprises are generally slow to go to the warehouse. Before a large amount of inventory digestion, the start-up of textile enterprises will still maintain a small downward state.


According to a cotton county, a number of different scale cotton textile enterprises survey, the current yarn market seems to be synchronized with the season, there is a cold feeling of "start of winter", more depressed than the previous period, but the size of the cotton mill performance is not the same, the difference is very big.


A large factory produces about 2500 tons of yarn per month, because the production of lint is distributed by the group, cotton yarn is also sold by the group, the factory only produces, so there is no operating pressure, and it has been full capacity production. The operation of small factories is worrying, a few can maintain their capital, and most are losing money. According to the person in charge of a small factory, the current price of 40 spun yarn has fallen to about 21600 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, is 35% with 11,000 yuan/ton price of car belly cotton to barely break even. At present, many small factories have adopted cotton and chemical fiber or hemp blending, the loss is less than the production of pure cotton yarn factories, and the pressure is lighter, but the vast majority of small factories are not as full load as large factories, but more or less reduce the capacity.


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