Refining and chemical enterprises are facing a "cold winter", and the supply chain of chemical products is under pressure

The supply fluctuations of heavy crude oil in Venezuela are continuously being transmitted along the industrial chain to the upstream extraction and downstream processing links. The International Energy Agency (IEA) had previously lowered its global oil supply forecast for 2026 due to sanctions against Russia. This escalation of the situation may lead to further revisions of the forecast. At present, global refining and chemical enterprises are generally under the dual pressure of oil price fluctuations and raw material shortages. Among them, refineries in Asia and Europe that rely heavily on heavy crude oil are the most directly affected, and some enterprises have shown signs of production cuts or even shutdowns.

From the perspective of the chemical industry, the impact is even more profound. Venezuela's heavy crude oil can produce basic chemical raw materials such as naphtha, which is a key source of core intermediates for plastics, rubber, etc. The stability of its supply is directly related to the production safety of downstream manufacturing industries. At present, global chemical enterprises have urgently activated emergency response plans, responding to risks by seeking alternative raw materials and adjusting production processes. However, process adjustments not only take a long time but also significantly increase production costs and squeeze the profit margins of enterprises. The volatility of international oil prices has risen significantly as the situation escalates. On January 5th, Brent crude oil futures briefly dropped by 1.2% before rebounding, reflecting the intensification of the market's game over the risks of supply disruptions and expectations of industrial recovery.

The Trans-Pacific heavy oil trade has undergone changes, and alternative solutions are like "distant water cannot quench the nearby fire".

This conflict is accelerating the reconfiguration of the global chemical trade flow, and the trans-Pacific heavy oil trade model formed over the past decade is facing adjustments. As the main purchasers of heavy crude oil from Venezuela, Asian refining and chemical enterprises have urgently evaluated alternative options, but all kinds of alternative options have obvious shortcomings.

Heavy crude oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the Middle East can partially fill the gap, but these crude oils differ from Venezuelan heavy crude oil in terms of sulfur content, metal content and other indicators. Refineries need to make process adjustments to adapt, which undoubtedly will further increase production costs. In terms of internal adjustment within the Americas, Canadian oil sands crude oil and Brazilian pre-salt crude oil are regarded as potential alternative resources. Canada is planning to build new oil pipelines to expand into the Asian market. However, the current transportation capacity of its cross-mountain oil pipelines is limited, and the approval and construction of new pipelines will take at least two years. The short-term increase is difficult to meet market demand. Brazil's pre-salt crude oil is also restricted by port facilities, and its export capacity has been increasing slowly.

What is even more alarming is that the deep-seated intention of the US military operation this time is to control Venezuela's oil resources and shift the focus of its crude oil exports to the US. This may force traditional buyers such as India to completely restructure their supply chains. Global oil trade is shifting from a "global layout" to a "geopolitical alliance orientation".

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